(20/09/2020) 沙田日賽晨操精選 HK Horse Racing Tips at Sha Tin

重心場次

Best Bets

第4場    凱倫健康   單Q搞掂

「健康在望」(6號馬) 上場賠率異常冷落，但表現卻非一無是處，即使在直路連番受阻也以勁勢撲上，跑第八其實表現絕不差。經過一場熱身後，今次晨操快跳活力大增，馬身亦十分強壯，狀態相當銳利，5歲馬看來仍有進步空間。上季在同程贏馬正是排1檔，有助發揮，加上轉由騎後上馬出色的賀銘年策騎，值得優先考慮。

「凱倫致寶」(1號馬) 上季一再於二班跑入三甲，今次降至三班實力有超卓感。今季轉由韋達訓練，晨操亦見有進步，快跳明顯比以往順滑，今次狀態即使未十足，也接近有九成，加上級數佔優，力足爭勝。

「嘜誰嘜誰」(3號馬) 上場輕鬆大勝3個馬位，當時本欄也有提供，不過今次狀態明顯不及上次，最後試跑拍挑一課，神色及活躍感比上次賽前拍跳平淡得多，加至133磅也有難度，成為大熱不值博。

投注策略：「健康在望」(6號馬) 及「凱倫致寶」(1號馬) 一對馬十分突出，可博單Q，信狀態可博「健康在望」(6號馬) Win

 

Race 4   HELENA BABY and GIFT OF LIFELINE are outstanding

GIFT OF LIFELINE (No.6) lacked room in straight last time, but he performed pretty well actually. His form is rising significantly after a run that galloped strongly and looked powerful in the mornings. This 5 years old horse is still improving. Draw 1 is a plus as he won over this trip at this draw last season. A Hamelin on board also will help this late-finisher. He is my first choice.

HELENA BABY (No.1) is classy in Class 3 that had collected 2 thirds in Class 2 last season. He moved to D J Whyte stable this summer and has made progress in the mornings that he strode smoother than last season. He’s quite fit and can fight for the win.

MR ALDAN (No.3) was my first choice last time and won comfortably. However, he’s not right at his best form that he looked dull in the gallop in pairs recently. The 133lbs also makes things tricky. Notching the win seems to be a difficult mission.

Play: Bet Quinella on HELENA BABY (No.1) and GIFT OF LIFELINE (No.6), and bet Win on GIFT OF LIFELINE (No.6)

 

第5場     龍鑽輝煌   退熱扺博

「龍鑽輝煌」(13號馬) 上次賽前晨操快跳未夠放鬆，尤其一對前腳開步十分緊窄，因此牠上次也不在本欄四選貼士之列，結果出賽在全日不利放頭的A跑道「一洩了事」，5.1倍熱門付諸東流。

經過一場實戰，今次晨操快跳一對前腳步幅明顯比上次開揚，走過比上次放鬆得多，令我對牠好感大增。上季全程走三疊後上跑第四已展現能力，今次排2檔估計會於早段稍留，跑法應比放頭合適，表現有望由蟲變龍。由田泰安換上蔡明紹，賠率肯定好分過上次，成為半冷值得一博。

「趣怡」(14號馬) 上季曾於跑馬地1200米，直路大脫節下展現驚人後勁，肯定有能力。上季尾轉往方嘉柏後即運上從化，操練從頭做過，我由7月16日開始每日都看牠的晨操片，足足看了個多月，不論快跳或踱步，每課我都看在眼內記在心，牠的馬身線條愈操愈靚，拍跳也肯主動趕上，敢說此馬一定比上季進步。

上場復出跑1000米，全程走三疊亂跑一通，無需介懷，今次增程跑1200米應更合發揮。雖然現時評分已可落五班跑，戰意成疑，但此馬只得千多磅，落五班負重磅未必有著數，換上大師傳巴度也不似想再減分，排4檔形勢會比上次理想，成為大冷門可拖回一票。

「北極光」(2號馬) 論質素當然於四班留不住，但今次排大外檔兼負重磅有難度，而且體重輕了28磅亦有疑點，成為大熱門有介心。

投注策略：「龍鑽輝煌」(13號馬) 可博WP，冷拖「趣怡」(14號馬) Q及QP

 

Race 5   DIAMOND PEGASUS can turn the tables

DIAMOND PEGASUS (No. 13) stretched awkwardly in the gallops before the last race. That’s why he’s not my selection last time. He led in the race penalized by the track bias that ran 9th disappointingly. Obviously, his form is better after a run that he strode nicely and looked relaxing in the mornings. He showed ability in Class 4 as he caught 3-wide with a close 4th last season. Draw 2 is an advantage that he can race in a handy position. The odds should be more attractive as M Chadwick on board. This outsider has to be a selection.

FOR FUN'S SAKE (No.14) is talented who came from behind strongly over 1200m at Happy Valley last season. He joined C Fownes stable in July and has worked diligently in Chonghua this summer. This 4 years old horse has shown improvement in the mornings that looked well-toned muscles with solid lines and stretched vigorously in the gallops in pairs. We should ignore his last race over 1000m as he caught 3-wide. An extra 200m this time seems to be more suitable. I think he’s not looking for a class drop as he’s a lighter horse that harder to carry a heavy weight and A Badel on board. We can’t rule him out.

BELUGA (No.2) is classy in Class 4, but the wide draw and big weight make things tricky. Also, there has to be a worry that his weight reduced 28lbs. Don’t overrate his chance.

Play: Bet Win and Place on DIAMOND PEGASUS (No. 13), and Bet Quinella / Quinella Place on DIAMOND PEGASUS (No. 13) and FOR FUN'S SAKE (No.14).

 

第8場   長長友   實力未見盡

「長長友」(7號馬) 暑期已曾作分析 (https://spartanbn118.blogspot.com/2020/08/blog-post_14.html)，至今看法無變。

投注策略：「長長友」(7號馬) 可博WP

Race 8   WIN WIN is still flying

WIN WIN (No.7) has worked nicely in the mornings since July in Chonghua. He’s full of energy and enthusiasm in the mornings and performed well in the recent trial. Apparently, he looks to have a tough handicap rating, but I think he’s still improving and can overcome the raised handicap mark. The draw and jockey on board are the same as he won over this trip last season. We should consider this outsider.

Play: Bet Win and Place on WIN WIN (No.7)